Depending upon how your CodeWarrior project is configured, when you click Debug the IDE might be downloading the program into RAM rather than flash, and so debugging works. From the communications trace, the IDE is talking to the part and erasing it. So, the evidence point to either the flash got secured somehow, or there's a secured region in the flash that you're trying to load the program in and the part balks at that.
Have you tried downloading any of the demo programs into flash successfully? That would tell you whether the part is secured, or if there's a secured area in flash.
Finally, since this problem seems to have appeared in v10.2, you might want to file an on-line service request to draw the engineers attention to this.
---Tom