Looks like I was being dumb. I had played with the debug jumper while testing last night. I went back to the P&E flasher as a sanity check and that wasn't working either. Found the jumper missed a pin. I put it back on and now Debug >> connect will connect and "erase" works fine from the Flash Programmer, but it is failing on the flash.
It runs through a bunch of stuff really quickly, then gets to the "programming" step, then erros out with a generic error "Error: Program failed. Se details for addition information.", but the details doesn't tell me anything usefull except "The flash algorithm was interupted during execution".
I can use the built s19 file and flash it throught he P&E software, but still no luck getting the flash to take in CW 7.2
Going to keep banging my head on it, but if anyone has a better suggestion I'm all ears.